One thing that has been made abundantly clear in the marketing onslaught for "Avengers: Infinity War" (opening across the galaxy on April 27) is that, after this movie, nothing will ever be the same for the Marvel Cinematic Universe
Or, perhaps more truthfully, after the untitled fourth "Avengers" film, opening next summer.
With all the gloom and doom swirling around the super-secretive superhero team-up movie, we thought we'd have some fun and try to guess who will make it through the movie alive and who won't. Here is our best guess for the "Avengers: Infinity War" mortality rate. Fun!
Probability of Death: 60%
Reasoning: Most of these will boil down to things that we know; primarily that many of the original Marvel Cinematic Universe actors will be released from their contract following the fourth "Avengers" movie (out next summer). Chris Evans is one of those actors.
Also, keep in mind that there are two characters already in the MCU who could easily take over for Cap and fill his shoes (they've also done it in the comics): Bucky (Sebastian Stan), who is known as the White Wolf in "Avengers: Infinity War," and Falcon (Anthony Mackie). Whether or not Steve Rogers dies in this movie or the next, we're uncertain, but one thing is clear: When the dust settles, this version of Captain America will be no more.
Probability of Death: 40%
Reasoning: Like Chris Evans, Robert Downey, Jr. will be released from his lucrative contract at the conclusion of the fourth "Avengers" movie next year. And keep this in mind: Tony Stark's arc, from blowhard billionaire jerk to selfless team member, can only be truly completed if he makes the ultimate sacrifice. We put his probability lower just because Downey, Jr. seems to be having the time of his life playing this character (why was he even in "Spider-Man: Homecoming?") that walking away from the armor will arguably harder for Downey than it will for the character.
Avenger: Thor
Probability of Death: 60%
Reasoning: Again, Chris Hemsworth is done with his contract after the next "Avengers" and, considering the events of "Thor: Ragnarok," Thor doesn't even have a home world to go back to. He's a lonely, one-eyed space orphan with nowhere to turn.
The only thing that could get Hemsworth back is that everyone associated with the character seems to have been rejuvenated by Taika Waititi's brilliant third movie, to the point where they were ready to have another go-around. But that would take so much contract negotiation and legal wrangling that it could be too complicated to even attempt. By the end of the fourth "Avengers," Thor will probably be on his way to Valhalla (if you know what we mean).
Avenger: Black Widow
Probability of Death: 10%
Reasoning: Black Widow wasn't a ground floor Marvel Cinematic Universe character, but she was close (her debut came in the otherwise forgettable "Iron Man 2").
Scarlett Johansson probably has a few more movies on her contract, and with good reason -- the character still has a lot of ground to explore. And a stand-alone movie, in the wake of "Wonder Woman," seems inevitable. (A few months back, a story broke that Marvel had finally assigned writers to the project.) This is an actress who clearly loves the character, and Widow serves as the kind of emotional glue that holds the MCU together so, no, she's not dead yet.
Avenger: Hulk
Probability of Death: 20%
Reasoning: Sure, the mighty Hulk getting crushed by Thanos would surely be a way to show how powerful the mad titan really is, but given Mark Ruffalo's only sporadic involvement in the MCU, it would be a shame if he left us after what seems like only a few appearances. (This is especially true, given his scene-stealing role in "Thor: Ragnarok.") If we were betting on it, we'd say the Hulk survives this two-part saga and lives to smash another day.
Avenger: Doctor Strange
Probability of Death: 5%
Reasoning: Benedict Cumberbatch's bemused surgeon-turned-master-of-the-mystical-arts has only starred in one stand-alone movie ("Doctor Strange") and made a brief appearance in another ("Ragnarok"). In other words: Cumberbatch owes Marvel many more movies, and the relative popularity of both his movie and his overall vibe means that we will be seeing much more of him in the not-too-distant future. (Supposedly, Marvel is just leaving the Sanctum Sanctorum set from "Infinity War" up in Atlanta so that it can be easily utilized for the "Doctor Strange" sequel.)
That said, we aren't too attached to Strange as a character and Thanos taking down the magical gatekeeper of the MCU would certainly send a statement.
Avenger: War Machine
Probability of Death: 20%
Reasoning: Last we saw Don Cheadle's War Machine, he was crippled by a blast from Vision's forehead (he was aiming for Captain America). He seems to be back on his feet (literally), thanks to some ingenious Stark tech, so he will be donning the bullet gray suit once more.
War Machine's brush with death proved that he was definitely mortal and maybe his time will finally run out when he goes up against Thanos and his minions. We're hedging our bets, though, since he is the heir apparent to Tony's vacated suit, should he, too, go down in the fight. Hey, somebody's got to do it, right?
Avenger: Spider-Man
Probability of Death: 0%
Reasoning: The sequel to "Spider-Man: Homecoming" will be released next summer, just after the fourth "Avengers." Tom Holland's Peter Parker is very safe indeed.
Avenger: Vision
Probability of Death: 99%
Reasoning: Most of the coveted Infinity Stones, which Thanos is aching for, reside in remote corners of the galaxy. With the mind stone, it's located smack dab in Vision's forehead. That presents something of a problem, as it gives Vision life and is something that Thanos is desperate for.
Unless there's some last minute save, Vision's days are numbered. And that will absolutely crush ...
Avenger: Scarlet Witch
Probability of Death: 5%
Reasoning: In the years since Vision and Scarlet Witch were introduced in "Avengers: Age of Ultron," the two have grown close. Like romantically close, if you know what we mean.
While Elizabeth Olsen's Scarlet Witch is probably safe, given her inclusion in the "New Avengers" line-up glimpsed at the end of "Age of Ultron" (alongside such favorites as Falcon and War Machine), we can imagine a scenario where she sacrifices herself trying to save her beloved, Vision. Now that would be dramatic.
Avenger: Ant-Man
Probability of Death: 0%
Reasoning: Well, we're not even sure Ant-Man is even in "Infinity War;" he's been left out of the posters and various marketing materials since the campaign began in earnest.
Our guess is that he's not in this movie ("Ant-Man and the Wasp" opens later this summer), but he will make an appearance in the next, untitled "Avengers" installment. And we're pretty sure he'll make it through that one, too, because -- come on -- are they really going to kill off Paul Rudd?
Avenger: Hawkeye
Probability of Death: 0%
Reasoning: Again, we're not totally positive that he even makes an appearance in "Infinity War." (What he's doing instead is anybody's guess; maybe there was some kind of problem with the cows on the farm?)
Like Ant-Man, we think he'll be a more prominent part of the fourth "Avengers" film, out next summer. And even then, we think that killing Jeremy Renner off would be cruel and unusual. He's got to make it back to the farm and his incredibly adorable family, after all. (Also, we're secretly hoping for a Hawkeye stand-alone film based on the recent, totally brilliant comic book run.)
Avenger: Black Panther
Probability of Death: 0%
Reasoning: To date, "Black Panther" has made $1.3 billion at the worldwide box office. Chadwick Boseman can rest easy with the kind of job security he's got now.
Avenger: Falcon
Probability of Death: 5%
Reasoning: Primarily, we think Anthony Mackie's Falcon is safe because of the ease with which he could slip into Captain America's place because, yes, Cap is definitely dying in the next couple of movies. (Sorry, everyone.)
Of course, there's always the possibility that he'll be killed off just to make that impossible. Like, you thought there'd be somebody to pick up the shield? Well, it turns out there's nobody left. Which brings us to...
Avenger: Bucky aka Winter Soldier aka White Wolf
Probability of Death: 5%
Reasoning: Again, Bucky, who now goes by the moniker White Wolf, since spending time in Wakanda getting de-programmed from his Hydra days (hail Hydra!), could be the perfect person to take Cap's shield and fight for what's right. (Remember that he was Steve Rogers' old platoon-mate in World War II.)
But he could get taken out for the same reason that Falcon could go: to serve as an even bigger obstacle for someone to take Captain America's place. What's even more unthinkable: that Falcon and Bucky bite the bullet, leaving the Avengers' option at zero.
What do you think of our odds making? Who do you think is most likely to get killed in the battle against Thanos and his minions? Let us know!
And come back after the release of "Avengers: Infinity War" where we'll tally up just how right (and wrong) we were!
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