"Big Brother 19" will be put out of its misery next Wednesday, Sept. 20, and Paul Abrahamian is still most likely to win that $500,000.
However.
There's still hope/fear -- depending on your perspective -- that one of the other remaining Houseguests could defeat the BB18 veteran. That vet already has $50,000 from last year, in addition to automatic safety for the first four weeks of this year, plus eight friendship bracelets he was able to use to make a majority house alliance. But who's counting. He's also played hardest to win. Point blank and the period
Here are scenarios (cue the Jozea GIF) where Potty Mouth Paul could still lose.
EVICTED AT FINAL 4
This post is being written Wednesday afternoon, with the live feeds down until after tonight's special eviction episode, where Alex Ow will be sent to jury.
Paul has already suggested to Kevin Schlehuber that he throw the next Head of Household, so Kevin can be evicted and Paul can get to F3 with Josh Martinez and Christmas Abbott. Last we saw, Kevin was torn between wanting to finally win a comp and wanting to just do what Paul says because that has gotten him this far. He thinks he's going to F3. It's possible Paul will change his mind and take Kevin, or Kevin will force the issue by winning HoH or the Power of Veto.
If Kevin accidentally or on purpose wins the next HoH, and Josh wins the PoV, Josh would vote out Paul. That is the *ideal* option for fans who want Paul out yesterday. Josh is finally awake and ready to get Paul out, he just has few options because Christmas is either madly in love with Paul or just acting that way, and Kevin is loyal to Paul and also not willing to do anything to rock the boat.
The only other F4 scenerio where Paul leaves is if Christmas is HoH and Josh wins Veto. Josh would have to be the voter to get Paul out. That's a must. Kevin is still most likely to leave here, though.
EVICTED AT FINAL 3
If Paul gets to the Final HoH comps, he is most likely to win Part 1, which is traditionally endurance. Even if he magically loses that, he is also most likely to win Part 2. Part 3 can be tricky -- it's a borderline crapshoot to guess A or B, to compete an evicted HG's quote -- but Paul won this last year. He picked the wrong person to take to the end, but if he gets to F3 this year and wins Part 3 he has much better options.
But if Josh makes it to F3 and wins Part 3, he would certainly evict Paul and go to the end with Christmas. In that case, Josh is most likely to win. Christmas has already more than hinted to Josh that she'd take Paul to the end, if she magically won Part 3. If Kevin made it that far, he would also probably take Paul to the end. In every scenario, Josh is the best bet to take out Paul. So it's unlikely to happen.
BITTER JURY
The jury currently consists of Cody Nickson, Mark Jansen, Elena Davies, Matt Clines, Jason Dent, and Raven Walton. Alex is about to join them. Let's say Kevin follows, and then Christmas.
Most of that jury will be ticked at Paul, realizing Cody was right about him the whole time. However, that's not the same thing as being bitter enough to vote for Christmas or Josh. That jury is not fond of Christmas or Josh either and unlikely to want to reward them. Josh picked fights with most of the house, doing Paul's dirty work, and Christmas had the few comps she could compete in thrown to her by Paul. It's most likely that the jury will give Paul a hard time, and then hold their noses to give him the money. Then they'll be best buddies with him after the show and pose with him in photos. (They'll also probably pretend they weren't awful to Kevin since Kevin is a strong contender to win America's Favorite.)
But let's say the jury is so bitter they want Paul gone. Jason is the most likely to be holding onto bitter feelings against Paul, and Alex for convincing him to trust Paul. Cody is no Paul fan, but he was planning to vote for Paul to win even before he was evicted -- figuring if the HGs are too stupid to get him out, that's on them. If Raven feels betrayed by Paul, that would make Matt feel the same and add to an anti-Paul jury. But Raven left the house convinced that Paul was on her side, and she may still be interested in defending him, since she entered the house as a huge fan of his and seems to want to stay his friend outside the house.
However, Josh left a great goodbye message for Jason, telling him the truth about his final three alliance. Paul does not know that he did that. If the jury compares stories, they should see that Josh was telling the truth. If Josh gets to the end with Paul, the jury may be willing to reward Josh for turning his game around 180-degrees from his Week 1 fight with Megan, becoming a savvy player. He may argue that he used Paul as much as Paul tried to use him. The jury may be looking for a reason -- any good reason -- to vote for someone not named Paul and give the win to Josh.
JOSH WINS?
Even if Paul gets his way and goes to the end with Josh, which seems at the moment to be his plan, Josh could still win. If Paul starts to realize this -- seeing that Josh is not the dumb lug he thought -- he may decide to go to the end with Christmas instead. She adores Paul and might actually argue for him to win at F2.
Or if Kevin saves himself in the next HoH/PoV, Paul could ditch Josh and go to the end with Kevin. Kevin is unlikely to make any arguments beyond saying he had a great social game, which most of the jury would not agree with at all.
So this really hinges on Josh winning and/or the jury wanting to reward his game evolution over Paul. Fingers crossed?
"Big Brother 19" has a funky schedule for the final week, airing an eviction episode tonight at 8, and another episode Thursday, Sept. 14 at 9 p.m., as usual. There's also a Friday episode on September 15 at 8 p.m., because Sunday night there will be no episode, 'cause CBS is airing the Emmy Awards. The big finale airs Wednesday, Sept. 20 from 8 to 10 p.m.
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