With a team that's won a total of six Oscars and been nominated for over 35 more, on paper, at least, "Unbroken" seems like as close to a sure thing as it gets this awards season.
It has a high-profile director, a script by the Coen brothers, and an up-and-coming young actor delivering another in a string of acclaimed performances. Not to mention it's adapted from a best-selling account of the incredible true story of Louis Zamperini, an Olympian-turned-war hero who survived a plane crash and 47 days lost at sea during World War II, only to spend another two-and-a-half years in a Japanese POW camp.
But somehow, despite all of that, Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" ends up less than the sum of its promising parts. So to figure out what went wrong, we've taken a look at the World War II drama's latest Oscar odds to determine where "Unbroken" ultimately broke down.
Best Actor
Current Odds: 100-1
A dramatic physical transformation is basically Academy voter catnip, and Jack O'Connell certainly turns in an Oscar-worthy one in "Unbroken," going from Olympic athlete to malnourished plane crash survivor to a rail-thin POW. But O'Connell's long-shot status has less to do with his performance as Zamperini (which is impressive) and more to do with the quality of competition for the Best Actor race this year (equally impressive). As much about the emotional wear and tear Zamperini underwent as the physical toll, this isn't an especially showy role for the promising young actor. Instead it's one that requires him to silently endure as he goes from one unimaginable torture to another, pinballing between fragile vulnerability and steely determination. So while this may not be O'Connell's year, remember the name. Because the odds are pretty good that you'll be hearing it again come Oscar season before too long.
Best Director
Current Odds: 33-1
Critics may have been divided on her directorial debut "In the Land of Blood and Honey," but Angelina Jolie could be looking at her third Oscar nomination for "Unbroken." And while it's easy to get cynical and credit that to Jolie's brand-name status or the classic Oscar-bait strategy of making a feel-good World War II drama about an American hero, she actually does a nice job with the material, despite the film's faults. Taking a page from fellow Oscar-winning-actor-turned-director Clint Eastwood, the script may not be especially subtle, but Jolie's direction is. And she brings an elegant, often understated touch to telling Zamperini's incredible story, letting its strong central performances carry the film. If anything, Jolie can be accused of playing things too safe here, but she's far from the first filmmaker to take a rousing, inspirational story and deliver less-than-thrilling results.
Best Cinematography
Current Odds: 5-1
Legendary cinematographer (and longtime Coen brothers collaborator) Roger Deakins has long been an awards season oversight, with zero wins to show for an impressive 11 Oscar nominations, and here, he adds yet another beautifully shot film to his resume. From the start with its memorable opening scene, "Unbroken" is packed with gorgeous visuals, whether the scene is set on land, sea or air. And with a little luck, Deakins, like Zamperini, could finally get the long-awaited recognition he deserves thanks to Jolie's film.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Current Odds: 15-2
That these odds aren't longer probably has more to do with the script's pedigree than reality. Because with Joel and Ethan Coen rewriting earlier drafts from Richard LaGravenese ("The Fisher King") and William Nicholson ("Les Misérables," "Gladiator") -- two names in their own right -- it's surprising just how much the script falls flat, when it should be one of the movie's biggest selling points. Instead, "Unbroken" takes Zamperini's stranger-than-fiction true story and turns it into a relatively formulaic wartime biopic. Meanwhile, the dialogue is so simplistic at times, it's hard to believe the Coens even had a hand in writing it. The worst offender? Louis' older brother Pete (Alex Russell), who seems to speak only in motivational poster slogans.
Best Picture
Current Odds: 20-1
No one's denying that there's a great story here: Universal has owned the movie rights to Zamperini's tale since the late 1950s, and Laura Hillenbrand's 2010 biography became a bestseller. And Jolie assembled a terrific group to help tell it in "Unbroken." With the impressive names behind the camera, and tremendous performances in front of it, not just from O'Connell, but from his co-star Domnhall Gleeson (who deserves special mention as Zamperini's fellow castaway), there's a lot to like about "Unbroken." But for a movie that wants to leave audiences cheering, too much of it falls flat. And while it's undoubtedly a well-crafted piece of filmmaking, it's ultimately missing that same irrepressible spirit it's supposed to be celebrating.
"Unbroken" opens in theatres on Christmas Day.
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